Bitcoin Could Hit $300K by 2030, Says ARK Invest

Cathie Wood’s ARK Invest has released new long-term projections for Bitcoin, estimating the cryptocurrency could hit $300,000 by 2030 in its bearish scenario. This outlook is part of a broader forecast featured in ARK’s “Big Ideas 2025” report, which also includes a base case of $710,000 and a bullish estimate of $1.5 million per Bitcoin by the end of the decade.

The report identifies several key drivers of Bitcoin’s potential price appreciation, including growing institutional interest, increasing use as a corporate treasury asset, and Bitcoin’s role as an alternative to gold. Even under conservative assumptions, ARK suggests Bitcoin’s role in the global financial system is likely to expand significantly. The firm believes Bitcoin’s technological foundation, finite supply, and decentralized nature will continue to make it attractive to investors seeking long-term hedges against inflation and economic uncertainty.

The projections are based on a number of modeled adoption scenarios, each considering varying levels of investment from different sectors of the global economy. ARK’s methodology factors in Bitcoin’s historical growth rate, current market trends, and macroeconomic indicators that influence investor sentiment and asset allocation decisions.

Institutional Allocation and Emerging Market Demand Among Key Catalysts

According to ARK’s analysis, if institutional investors allocate between 1% to 6.5% of their portfolios to Bitcoin (excluding gold holdings), it could drive substantial price growth. The report also projects that Bitcoin could absorb between 20% to 60% of gold’s market capitalization if its digital gold narrative continues to gain traction. This shift would be propelled by Bitcoin’s advantages in portability, divisibility, and verifiability compared to physical gold.

ARK further suggests that Bitcoin may serve as a hedge in emerging markets suffering from currency devaluation, potentially accounting for up to 6% of the global M2 monetary base. In countries facing monetary instability, Bitcoin offers an alternative store of value and a means of transacting outside traditional financial systems. This demand could increase as smartphone and internet penetration grow in developing regions.

In addition, corporate treasuries allocating between 1% to 10% of their cash reserves to Bitcoin could further fuel demand. This trend gained attention after major firms like Tesla and MicroStrategy added Bitcoin to their balance sheets, signaling growing institutional acceptance. Should this behavior become widespread, it could introduce significant long-term capital into the market.

Despite regulatory headwinds and market volatility, ARK Invest maintains that Bitcoin is on a trajectory to become a global reserve asset and a core component of diversified investment portfolios. The firm acknowledges risks, including potential government crackdowns and technological vulnerabilities, but maintains confidence in the asset’s resilience. As Bitcoin continues to evolve, its market narrative appears increasingly tied to macroeconomic forces and institutional momentum.