Global FX Market Summary: Economic Growth Data, Monetary Policy Expectations, US-China Trade Relations 30 April 2025

Eurozone GDP surprises positively; US growth slowdown, inflation data, rate cut bets, and US-China trade tensions dominate market focus.

Focus on Economic Growth Data

A central theme in the news revolves around the critical importance of economic growth data releases, particularly the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figures for both the Eurozone and the United States. Recent data revealed that the Eurozone’s economy showed unexpected resilience, expanding by 0.4% in the first quarter of 2025 compared to the previous quarter. In contrast, Germany, a major component of the Eurozone, experienced a 0.2% annualized contraction in its GDP during the same period, a figure that aligned with analysts’ forecasts. Looking ahead, the primary market focus is squarely on the impending release of the US Q1 GDP data. Analysts anticipate a notable deceleration in US economic growth, projecting a rate of 0.4%, a significant step down from the 2.4% growth recorded in the final quarter of 2024. The actual outcome of the US GDP report is widely expected to act as a substantial market mover, potentially dictating the near-term trajectory of the EUR/USD currency pair.

Inflation and Monetary Policy Expectations

Another fundamental theme permeating the news is the analysis of inflation data and its subsequent implications for the monetary policy decisions of central banks. Recent preliminary Consumer Price Index (CPI) figures from key Eurozone economies, including Germany and France, have indicated a moderation in the pace of price increases. This softening of inflation data has bolstered market expectations that the European Central Bank (ECB) is likely to proceed with an interest rate cut, potentially of 25 basis points, at its June policy meeting, a move that is largely factored into current market pricing. On the other side of the Atlantic, the upcoming release of the US Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index for March is being keenly awaited. This data will provide crucial insights into the prevailing inflation trends within the United States, which will, in turn, heavily influence expectations regarding the future course of the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy. Currently, market participants are assigning a roughly 35% probability to the Fed maintaining its current policy rate in June, suggesting that there is scope for a significant reaction in the value of the US Dollar should the inflation data deviate from expectations.

Impact of US-China Trade Relations

The ongoing and complex trade relationship between the United States and China, along with its potential ramifications for the global economy, constitutes a significant third theme. Recent commentary from US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent suggests that the United States is looking to China to take the initiative in de-escalating the existing tariffs. While China has announced some exemptions on tariffs for certain US imports, this move is being interpreted cautiously by the market, with analysts suggesting it may not represent a broader shift in trade policy. Notably, a member of the European Central Bank’s executive board, Piero Cipollone, has cautioned that the US-led global trade war could lead to recessionary pressures and significantly dampen business investment and GDP growth within the Eurozone. The prevailing uncertainty surrounding the future of US-China trade relations is contributing to a fragile and potentially negative outlook for the US Dollar in the broader market.

Top economic events for this week:

Okay, here are 10 of the most important news events from your list for this week, focusing on those with a “HIGH” impact, along with their dates and descriptions of their importance:

1. April 30, 2025, 12:00 PM CEST: Consumer Price Index (MoM) (EUR) – This monthly release provides a key measure of inflation within the Eurozone. A higher-than-expected reading can signal rising price pressures, potentially leading the European Central Bank (ECB) to consider tighter monetary policies, which can impact the value of the Euro and overall economic conditions.
2. April 30, 2025, 12:00 PM CEST: Consumer Price Index (YoY) (EUR) – This year-over-year figure indicates the change in consumer prices compared to the same month last year in the Eurozone. It offers a broader perspective on inflation trends and is closely watched by the ECB to gauge the persistence of price pressures and inform their long-term policy decisions.
3. April 30, 2025, 12:00 PM CEST: Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY) (EUR) – This is a standardized measure of inflation across the Eurozone, allowing for better comparisons between member states. The year-over-year change is a critical indicator for the ECB’s monetary policy, as it reflects the overall price stability within the currency area.
4. April 30, 2025, 12:15 PM CEST: ADP Employment Change (USD) – This report estimates the change in private sector employment in the United States. It serves as an early indicator of the broader official employment data released by the government and can significantly influence market expectations regarding the strength of the labor market and future economic growth, impacting the US Dollar.
5. April 30, 2025, 12:30 PM CEST: Core Personal Consumption Expenditures – Price Index (MoM) (USD) – This monthly index measures the change in the prices of goods and services purchased by consumers, excluding volatile food and energy prices. It is a key inflation gauge for the Federal Reserve (the Fed) as it provides a clearer picture of underlying inflation trends, influencing their monetary policy decisions and the value of the US Dollar.
6. April 30, 2025, 12:30 PM CEST: Core Personal Consumption Expenditures – Price Index (YoY) (USD) – This year-over-year change in the core PCE price index is another critical inflation indicator monitored by the Federal Reserve. It reflects the persistent trend of underlying inflation in the US economy and plays a significant role in shaping the Fed’s interest rate policies and impacting the US Dollar’s strength.
7. April 30, 2025, 12:30 PM CEST: Gross Domestic Product Annualized (USD) – This figure represents the annualized growth rate of the US economy’s total output of goods and services. It is a comprehensive measure of economic activity and a key indicator of the nation’s economic health. Strong GDP growth can be positive for the US Dollar, while weak growth may raise concerns about a slowdown.
8. April 30, 2025, 15:00 PM CEST: President Trump speech (USD) – Speeches by influential political figures, especially the President of the United States, can have a significant impact on market sentiment and potentially economic policy. Depending on the content of the speech, particularly regarding economic plans, trade, or fiscal policy, it can lead to volatility in the US Dollar and broader financial markets.
9. May 01, 2025, 03:00 AM CEST: BoJ Interest Rate Decision (JPY) – This announcement by the Bank of Japan (BoJ) reveals their decision on the benchmark interest rate. Changes in interest rates are a primary tool used by central banks to manage inflation and stimulate or cool down the economy. This decision can have a significant impact on the value of the Japanese Yen and Japanese financial markets.
10. May 01, 2025, 14:00 PM CEST: ISM Manufacturing PMI (USD) – The Institute for Supply Management’s Purchasing Managers’ Index for the manufacturing sector is a key indicator of economic activity in this crucial part of the US economy. A reading above 50 indicates expansion, while below 50 suggests contraction. This report can influence market expectations for economic growth and the direction of the US Dollar.

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