Weekly data: Oil and Gold: Price review for the week ahead.

This article was submitted by Antreas Themistokleous, an analyst at Exness.

This preview of weekly data looks at USOIL and XAUUSD where economic data coming up later this week are the main market drivers for the near short-term outlook.

Highlights of the week: FOMC minutes, US inflation, UK GDP and US PPI

Wednesday:

• FOMC Minutes at 18:00 GMT where investors and traders will be paying close attention to any hints from the Federal Reserve in terms of future developments on the monetary policy. Currently, the possibilities of keeping the interest rates unchanged in the next meeting is around 44% according to the Fedwatch tool. This is a massive shift from the 86% of last week and its mainly because of the announcement of the tariffs by president Trump and the reaction of the markets.

Thursday:

• Chinese inflation rate at 01:30 AM GMT. The market is expecting this figure to tick upwards by 0.7% reaching 0% for the month of March.
• US Inflation rate at 12:30 GMT where the consensus is for an increase of around 0.2% reaching 2.8% for the month of March. At the same time core inflation is also expected to increase by 0.1%. This data is rather critical at this point in time because interest rates probabilities have shifted and a surprise on the actual figures of inflation could create more fluctuations in the probabilities of a cut or stability of the rates.

Friday:

• British GDP growth at 06:00 AM GMT where the annualized figure is expected to drop from 1% to 0.9% and the monthly figure from -0.1% to 0.1%. If these expectations are confirmed then the pound might witness some minor short term losses against other currencies traded against.
• U.S Producers Price Index (PPI) at 12:30 PM GMT. Market participants are expecting the figure to come out at 0.2% over 0% of the previous reading. If this is confirmed then it could potentially hint to potential higher inflation figures in the coming months since higher producers’ costs usually roll down to consumers pushing inflation figures to the upside.

U.S. oil prices fell below $60 a barrel on Sunday, April 6, 2025, due to concerns that President Donald Trump’s global tariffs could lead to a recession in the U.S. and potentially worldwide. This decrease follows two consecutive weeks of 6% declines, bringing WTI to its lowest level since April 2021. The primary concern is that the tariffs could result in increased prices for businesses, leading to reduced economic activity and ultimately lowering oil demand. JPMorgan raised its forecast of a recession in 2025 to 60% following the tariff announcement, up from 40%.

On the technical side, the price of crude oil has massively declined after failing to break through the major technical resistance area of $71, which was made up of the upper band of the Bollinger Bands and the 100-day moving average area. After the announcement of the tariffs on the 2nd of April, the price of crude oil has been in freefall. The aggressive sell-off has pushed the Stochastic oscillator to extreme oversold levels, but it could stay there for a while if there are no bullish catalysts in the coming days. The Bollinger Bands have significantly expanded, showing that volatility is fueled up, and there could be a sharp move in the price in either direction in the upcoming days. At the same time, the 50-day moving average has crossed below the slower 100-day, validating the overall bearish trend in the market.

Gold prices fell to a three-week low in Asian trading due to investors liquidating positions to cover losses in other markets amid intensifying global trade tensions and mounting fears of a global recession. The decline in gold prices, typically seen as a safe haven, comes despite a broader risk-off sentiment triggered by sweeping tariffs announced by U.S. President Donald Trump. The continued weakness in the U.S. dollar and growing bets of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts provided some support to gold, while other precious metals like silver and palladium also saw gains.

From a technical point of view, the price of gold has found sufficient resistance on the upper band of the Bollinger Bands and has since corrected to the downside until today. Currently the price seems to be finding strong support on the 50% of the daily Fibonacci retracement level and is holding above it for now. The combination of the extremely oversold Stochastic oscillator and the fact that the faster moving average is trading well above the slower one validate that the bullish trend is still holding strong despite the bearish correction. If the price resumes the bullish momentum then the area of $3,100 might be the next potential area of resistance which consists of the 23.6% of the daily Fibonacci retracement level as well as the psychological resistance of the round number.

Disclaimer: the opinions in this article are personal to the writer and do not reflect those of Exness or Finance Feeds.

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